Join JayDee Dyer & Nico Cantor for a brand new way of consuming the beautiful game with Numbers Don’t Lie from Sofascore. On this episode, we are taking a look at the upcoming 2026 World Cup Qualifying Playoffs, zeroing in on the nations looking to acquire one of the last four spots from UEFA. The crew take a moment to look at the entire bracket, discussing which nation has the hardest path to qualification Plus, join the crew as they break down the chances that Arsenal Striker Viktor Gyökeres’ Sweden, Liverpool’s Federico Chiesa & Italy, Barcelona star striker Robert Lewandowski’s Poland, or Real Madrid’s Arda Güler & Türkiye will qualify to the 2026 World Cup this summer.
0:00 PREDICTING the UEFA Playoffs
0:35 The UEFA BRACKET!
1:11 Path A: Italy, Wales, Bosnia, N. Ireland
3:45 Path B: Sweden, Ukraine, Poland, Albania
5:54 Path C: Turkey, Romania, Slovakia, Kosovo
8:01 Path D: Czechia, Ireland, Denmark, N. Macedonia
9:58 The Oracle’s Selections!
10:48 Watch More!
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Even though i’m polish I just hope that sweden won’t qualify as they looked at wizards and kings in the nba and thought tanking was a good idea
Polskaaaaaaa
Your list is mostly reasonable, and the ranking order is broadly correct — but a few percentages need adjusting based on squad strength, path difficulty, and historical playoff performance.
Below is a fair, realistic evaluation of each team’s actual chance IF the percentage represents “probability to win their UEFA playoff path and qualify for 2026.”
I’ll go team by team and tell you where I agree, where you're overrating/underrating, and what the corrected realistic range should be.
✅ 1. Italy — Your estimate: 60%
Verdict: Agree (55–65% range).
Italy are the strongest team left and have the deepest squad.
But single-leg playoffs always lower probabilities.
60% is perfectly fair.
✅ 2. Turkey — Your estimate: 50%
Verdict: Slightly high → should be 40–45%.
Turkey are good on paper but extremely inconsistent.
Their form swings wildly (e.g., beating Germany but losing to Wales).
Still one of the top 4 strongest, but 50% is a bit optimistic.
😐 3. Denmark — Your estimate: 46%
Verdict: Slightly high → should be 40–45%.
Denmark are strong but:
They struggle in away matches
Their attack lacks a consistent scorer
Still, they’re top-tier for these playoffs, just not quite 46%.
❗ 4. Poland — Your estimate: 34%
Verdict: Too high → should be 25–28%.
Poland have:
Aging stars
Major inconsistency
Often struggle without Lewandowski in peak form
Still dangerous, but not above Ukraine/Slovakia.
❗ 5. Ukraine — Your estimate: 30%
❗ 6. Slovakia — Your estimate: 30%
Verdict: These should be slightly higher (Ukraine 32–35%, Slovakia 28–30%).
Ukraine are better than Poland.
Slovakia are slightly worse but more stable.
Your numbers are close, but Ukraine should be above Poland.
⚠ 7. Czechia — Your estimate: 29%
Verdict: Pretty accurate (28–30%).
Czechia are solid, physical, and very playoff-ready.
Your estimate is fine.
⚠ 8. Sweden — Your estimate: 26%
Verdict: Slightly high — Sweden should be ~20–23%.
Sweden’s squad looks good on paper, but:
They missed Euro 2024
Poor results recently
No clear system after Andersson era
Still dangerous, but weaker than your 26%.
⚠ 9. Wales — Your estimate: 25%
Verdict: Should be a bit lower — around 18–22%.
Wales without Kieffer Moore are significantly worse.
Their attack becomes tame and predictable.
Still competitive, but not 25%.
⚠ 10. Ireland — Your estimate: 22%
Verdict: Slightly high — should be 15–18%.
Ireland are:
Hard-working
Strong defensively
Limited creatively
They struggle to score enough to win playoff matches.
⚠ 11. Bosnia — Your estimate: 12%
⚠ 12. Kosovo — Your estimate: 12%
Verdict: Bosnia ~10%, Kosovo ~8–10%.
Bosnia are inconsistent and in transition.
Kosovo have talent but lack experience in big matches.
Your number is close but slightly generous for Kosovo.
⚠ 13. Albania — Your estimate: 10%
Verdict: Correct (8–10%).
Albania can beat anyone but also lose to anyone.
A perfect “10% team.”
⚠ 14. Romania — Your estimate: 8%
Verdict: Slightly low → should be 10–12%.
Romania are better than Bosnia and Kosovo, with a stronger midfield and chemistry.
Underrated team.
⚠ 15. Northern Ireland — Your estimate: 3%
⚠ 16. North Macedonia — Your estimate: 3%
Verdict: Accurate.
NI are depleted, weak offensively.
North Macedonia are dangerous at home but inconsistent and outmatched.
3% is right for both.
✅ Overall Evaluation
Your ranking order is very good, and the percentages are close, but with these minor fixes it becomes more realistic:
Team Your % More accurate range
Italy 60% 55–65%
Turkey 50% 40–45%
Denmark 46% 40–45%
Poland 34% 25–28%
Ukraine 30% 32–35%
Slovakia 30% 28–30%
Czechia 29% 28–30%
Sweden 26% 20–23%
Wales 25% 18–22%
Ireland 22% 15–18%
Bosnia 12% 10%
Kosovo 12% 8–10%
Albania 10% 8–10%
Romania 8% 10–12%
Northern Ireland 3% 3%
North Macedonia 3% 3%
📌 Final Verdict
Yes, your predictions are generally correct.
Only small adjustments are needed — the overall logic, tiers, and ordering make sense.
We are so strong at home come on wales 🏴 🏴
Italy, Poland, Türkiye, Denmark
i love the hair joke dude 😀
Come one Italy 🇮🇹 Romania 🇷🇴 and Albania 🇦🇱✌️🗣️🗣️❤️🩹
Worst prediction out of em all I`ve seen till now. Just thrown out there, to be amongst the others(in trend)… LOL
I think Ireland would be the favorites to take the last spot. Czech Republic is not so strong. Macedonia is dark horse, but they will beat Denmark, cos they are weak and nervous infant of their home crowd
The way you guys present this is simply out of non football knowledge that you have about the actual countries. Even though Wales takes pride on their national team and all that, Italy is still going to go through. They have a better coach, better players and better preparation. So far, no major apsences. As for Poland vs Albania, Albania is not only a wildcard but they actually are favorites to win the game. Yes, Poland plays at home but the last 2 games they played against each other, Albania won and was a better team. Poland might have Lewandowski but 1-2 players can't win you the game. Ukraine has the highest chances of qualifying but you never mention anything football related. You said that given their geographic circumstances Ukraine aren't favorites because they play in Valencia due to the war. They've beein playing outside Ukraine since 2022 but seems like the only thing you know about Ukraine national football team is that there is a war going on in their country. Also, your stats are AI based. You mentioned Poland's Lewandowski but didn't mention Kosovo's Muriqi who is the 2nd best goalscorer in La Liga this season only behind Mbappe. Please do your homework before making these kind of videos. There are huge football fans who watch your videos who actually understand football. Unlike you.
COME ON IRELAND 🇮🇪🍀🟢🟢💪
Eyes on Albania. They now have their best team of all their history. They have a Brazilian coach, Sylvinho. He made all his career in the almighty Corinthians!
Disgraceful, we can’t let these guys do the analysis on their own, and need to call in AI instead? Nico especially is a great football journalist, disappointing that these sponsors are ruining the beautiful game. Using analytics is one thing but this is just too far.
Poland 3:0 Ukraine in the final. Mark that.
Ukraine got injuries on dovbyk, zinchenko and yaremchuk. Sweden got isak and kulusevski injured, but we still got offensive firepower with elanga who scored 2 against barca, Gyökeres, Bardghij in barca, Bergvall thats back from injury, swedberg who scored 2 against real madrid.
since the arrival of VAR the Italians have had problems, because they used to use the dark arts (roulades galore, harassment of the ref rtc etc). so happy that VAR exists .
Wales, poland, ireland and turkey
ai slop? pathetic
Ireland will qualify and win against Czech Republic
Very interesting matches
İtalien ,Türkei ,Polen and Irland
Crech republic? Oracle is wrong
The black man said Sweden first World Cup since 1994? They’ve been to the 2002,2006 and 2018 world cups. Who are these people producing such slop
Ireland itlay sweeden Poland Turkey and to go true
Italy, Denmark, turkye are clear favourites, path B is unpredictable
Italy REALLY NEEDS to go
Sweden literally got to the quarter finals in 2018
Italy, Ukraine, Kosovo, Denmark
Lame for CBS this guys talking about hair and really don’t do any analysis
In path d denmark or ireland will qualify…mark my words
Italy will qualify
The 1 loss Wales 🏴 has had in their last 12 home matches was vs Canada 🇨🇦 last year
We need the Golazo show for this!
Hard to believe the ‘Oracle’ got it all right with UCL knockout stage 1… where’s the video proof?
best of luck to the Irish
Alb kos going to the World Cup
Argentina Vs Spain in the final.
Bosnia will smash their way through gents. I like that mostly people are underestimating Bosnia. We survived ethnic cleansing you guys really think some stadium in Wales is going to intimidate Bosnians? we shall see…. cheers
Bosnia, Turkiye, Ukraine, Denmark
Italia, Polonia, Turchia, Irlanda…
“Patrick Schick is having a moment.” Eh, what about Troy Parrott?!
Im sorry but using A.I. slop for this is pathetic.
-> 70,000 fans singing "Land of my fathers" – when Cardiff City's stadium capacity is locked at 33,280
Can't even get basic widely available data right that you could ascertain from a 5 second google search, absolute garbage.
"oracle" just say AI lmao
Plenty of italians like me doesn't want italy to go world cup for multiple reasons
Myself even more now after bastoni and inter juve
I won my world cup at nice age like 16yo and i still remember that night and all the things back in 2006
Now i do hate italian national team and even more italians players (in fact COMO N MILAN are doing well without italians…..fact)
Northern Ireland is good man
🇽🇰 🇦🇱
If Italy misses 2026…. Oh. My. God.
If I’m being honest, I don’t what to expect from Sweden given how bad we are atm despite having good players. We went winless in the qualifiers despite having a group that was considered favourable to us when it was drawn. Having Isak and Kulusevski out injured isn’t ideal ibr